The Impact of Terrorism on Fertility: Evidence From Women of Childbearing Age in Pakistan

Direct and indirect exposure to terrorist attacks can have a significant impact on major life decisions, including the choice of whether to have a child. This study aims to investigate how terrorist attacks affect fertility. By pooling data from three years of cross-sectional surveys conducted between 2010 and 2015 by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, our findings reveal a positive correlation between terrorist attacks and fertility among women of childbearing age in Pakistan. Specifically, the probability of giving birth two years following a terrorist attack in one’s home district, all else equal, is 64 percent, compared to the probability of a woman not giving birth two years following a terrorist attack, which is 36 percent. Furthermore, our analysis demonstrates that persistent terrorist attacks, that is, domestic and non-suicide incidents, result in higher probabilities of giving birth during a particular year. Conversely, less common and more prominent terrorist attacks – transnational and suicide incidents – result in lower probabilities of giving birth during a particular year. Additionally, we find that women from above-average-income households, those with higher education levels, older mothers, and those residing in rural areas are more likely to adjust their fertility upwards in response to terrorist attacks.