From Social Attitudes to Outcomes: The Role of Institutional Quality in Development [version 1; peer review: 1 approved, 2 approved with reservations]

Background Institutional quality is a critical determinant of development outcomes, yet the role of social attitudes in shaping institutions remains underexplored. This study examines the impact of public attitudes toward gender equality, environmental protection, and immigration on institutional strength and socioeconomic development. Method Using data from Wave 7 of the World Values Survey, we apply a classification of attitudes based on a combination of set theory and ordinal preference logic. Respondents are grouped into 27 attitude combinations and then aggregated into eight categories. Country-level proportions are computed. We apply Bayesian Network Analysis (BNA) to uncover complex dependencies, identifying relationships and central institutional nodes such as the rule of law, democratic stability, and market organisation. Latent institutional quality and development outcomes variables are derived using Principal Component Analysis. We then use Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) to test a mediation model, estimating direct and indirect effects of attitudes on development outcomes. Bootstrapping with 5,000 replications ensures statistical robustness. Results BNA reveals that institutional quality is a key bridge between social attitudes and development outcomes. SEM confirms that institutional quality mediates these effects in most cases. Neutral-positive and mixed-neutral attitudes yield the most potent positive indirect effects, underscoring their role in consensus building. Negative attitudes are associated with institutional weakening and lower development performance. Interestingly, moderately negative views may drive democratic reform when linked to institutional accountability. Conclusion Social attitudes affect development primarily through their influence on institutions. Contrary to common assumptions, moderate and neutral positions are not passive; they foster institutional adaptability and stability. These findings underscore the importance of targeting centrist groups in policy design to reinforce inclusive governance and long-term development.