Disentangling the relative importance of subjective economic uncertainty for fertility intentions and realization in Norway

Abstract This study uses longitudinal data from two waves of the Norwegian Generations and Gender Survey (2020 and 2024) to test whether subjective economic uncertainty predicts fertility intentions and the transition to parenthood, controlling for objective economic uncertainty. The Norwegian welfare state provides an extensive economic safety net and institutional buffer, which could dampen the behavioral impact of perceived financial strain. Nevertheless, among 609 childless adults aged 25–34, reporting difficulties making ends meet was associated with a lower probability of realizing intended first births, even after controlling for employment status and income. Other subjective measures—expectations about personal finances in three years and worries about the macroeconomy—showed no significant effects. Overall, fertility intentions were less influenced by subjective economic uncertainty than was the subsequent realization of those intentions. This suggests that intentions translate into behavior only when external constraints, including individuals’ perceptions of their economic situation, permit it. These results highlight the importance of incorporating individuals’ subjective assessments of their current and future economic situation into fertility research.