Total fertility rates with immediate and very long run zero population growth implications for European countries

Abstract The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the below replacement level for a population without migration throughout Europe. The population growth implications of low fertility combined with non-zero migration remain widely misunderstood. This paper proposes new measures which may enhance understanding of the relationships between TFRs and population growth for open populations. For 22 European countries in 2019, the method adjusts the familiar ‘typically just below 2.1’ replacement level for effects of constant non-zero immigration counts and emigration rates. The long-run perspective on zero growth the ‘Migration-Adjusted Replacement TFR’ provides is supplemented with near-term perspective by also presenting the TFR that would produce zero population growth immediately. The Migration-Adjusted Replacement TFR for 2019 ranges between 0.86 for Spain and 2.44 for Croatia. The variation is associated with the differences in migration between these countries. Its value is below 2.1 in 18 countries. For nine countries, the 2019 TFR is above the Migration-Adjusted Replacement level. The ‘Immediate Population Replacement TFR’ ranges from 0.26 for Sweden to 2.83 for Bulgaria, and for most countries lies below the Migration-Adjusted Replacement TFR. For most of the European countries, the TFRs that are coherent with zero population growth, immediately and long run, are below 2.1. A major advantage of this paper’s version of the ‘Migration-Adjusted Replacement TFR’ is its applicability to contexts with negative current net migration. The new measures proposed in this paper can better guide assessment of the relationships between fertility levels and population growth for European and other countries with non-zero immigration and emigration.