Climate change: trends and their effect on seaport activity and infrastructure: insights from major ports of India

Abstract Seaborne transport plays a crucial role in local, national, and global economies, helping to shift manufacturing from regional to global levels. However, international trade is susceptible to the impacts of changing climate patterns. This paper examines how climate disruptions affect India’s international trade by analysing the seaport traffic of eight major Indian ports from 1982 to 2021. To that effect, using Principal Component Analysis, we create a climate index consisting of wind speed, temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation variables and we show that the index variables significantly impact port activities. Additionally, our analysis also accounts for variables such road and railway infrastructure, since this directly affects cargo flows, port traffic and regional incomes. Moreover, in the context of our analysis, we consider that robust road and rail infrastructure improves resilience against extreme weather events by ensuring better connectivity, quicker recovery, and sustained economic stability. We employ several econometric techniques, and diagnostic checks to draw empirical inferences. Moreover, the analysis distinguishes between east and west coast ports of India, given their markedly different climatic and economic conditions. India’s position as a climate change hotspot heightens the vulnerability of its ports. The methods and findings discussed here provide steps for policymakers to prioritise training, revise insurance policies, upgrade infrastructure, promote stakeholder collaboration, and adopt green solutions to mitigate climate impact.