The tipping point of intolerance: radical-right elections and terrorist attacks as catalysts for anti-Muslim hate crime in Europe

Abstract This paper provides a cross-country analysis of anti-Muslim hate crimes in Europe, using ODHIR-OSCE data for 30 countries between 2016 and 2022. We systematically compare the effects of two major shocks highlighted in the literature: radical-right electoral gains and Islamist terrorist attacks. The paper explores two mechanisms through which these shocks may impact hate crimes against Muslim minorities: (1) legitimization, whereby terrorism or radical-right success can normalize hate crimes against Muslims, and (2) containment, whereby the surge of radical right parties in institutions may channel at least part of the hate resulting from societal tensions. Our findings reveal that terrorist attacks increase anti-Muslim hate crimes, and radical right electoral success has an exclusively legitimizing effect on anti-Muslim hate crimes, failing to contain violence. The effect of radical right electoral success is moderated in scenarios with harsher socio-economic conditions, where it seems to absorb other types of grievances and discontent.