Will displaced Ukrainians return home? Exploring return migration through an aspirations-capabilities lens: cases from Spain and Sweden

Abstract Since February 2022 many Ukrainians have been being forcibly displaced in the ongoing war. However, little is known regarding the experiences of internationally displaced Ukrainians. This article explores these experiences and unpacks their return migration aspirations, through in-depth interviews, participatory workshops, and participatory observation with Ukrainians displaced to Spain and Sweden (May-December 2023), as well as policy and context analysis. Building on the aspirations-capabilities framework, we analyse how aspirations and capabilities, combined with macro and micro-factors, shape the narratives and decision-making processes of these displaced individuals regarding a possible return. Our findings reveal the interplay between macro sociopolitical environments and micro-factors such as stigma and trauma, highlighting a strong gender dimension. We showcase the concept of “virtual return”, underlining the role of digital connectivity in maintaining transnational ties and contributing to home country recovery. The study provides nuanced insights into the multifaceted nature of (return) migration and critical implications for both Ukrainian and EU migration policies.