“Digital” and low carbon: digital rural development pilot policies and agricultural carbon productivity

Abstract Improving agricultural carbon productivity is crucial for advancing economic and social green and low-carbon development, with the digital development initiative exemplified by the digital village construction pilot policy being instrumental in enhancing agricultural “quality and efficiency.” This study treats the pilot policy for digital rural development as a quasi-natural experiment of external shock policy, employing the difference-in-differences (DID) method to dynamically assess its impact mechanisms and pathways on agricultural carbon productivity using panel data from 620 counties (cities and districts) in major grain-producing regions from 2018 to 2022. The findings reveal that the implementation of the digital rural development pilot policy effectively promotes a significant increase in local agricultural carbon productivity, with adjacent regions experiencing similar effects. Among these, inland regions exhibit weaker policy effects compared to coastal regions, and the policy relationships in urban–rural integrated development zones and east-central-west collaborative development zones also follow this pattern. Similarly, the policy effects of large-scale operations are superior to those of small-scale operations. The policy further highlights the two key mechanisms—industrial agglomeration and service integration—underlying its impact on China’s agricultural carbon productivity. Additionally, the increase in agricultural entrepreneurship activity exhibits a trend of increasing marginal benefits in relation to policy implementation.