Dynamics of ecosystem services values in response to land use land cover change in Wolaita Zone, Ethiopia

Abstract Ecosystem services (ES) are direct and indirect benefits that humans obtain from ecosystems. Land use land cover (LULC) change profoundly influences ecosystem service values (ESVs), shaping ecological functionality and human well-being. Using Landsat data from 1995 to 2025, LULC was analyzed for spatiotemporal change in Wolaita Zone, Ethiopia, using GIS and remote sensing techniques. By integrating band combinations, training samples were taken, and the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm was employed in supervised classification. The resultant map was validated using a confusion matrix and Kappa statistics. The Kappa coefficients of the LULC maps for 1995, 2003, 2015, and 2025 were 0.887%, 0.914%, 0.9332%, and 0.9607%, respectively. The benefit-transfer method was used to quantify ESVs across time. Results demonstrate a significant transformation of the landscape over the past three decades. Between 1995 and 2025, vegetation cover and waterbodies increased by 512.61 km² (+ 26.4%) and 66.57 km² (+ 247.46%), with annual rates of increase of 17.09 km²/year (0.88%) and 2.22 km²/year (8.25%), respectively. However, agricultural land and bare land decreased by -400.96 km² (− 27.07%) and − 277.67 km² (− 28.94%), respectively, alongside a modest urban expansion of 99.46 km² (+ 2.21%). These LULC shifts increased total ESVs, from US$246.75 million in 1995 to US$342.23 million in 2025, with a net gain of US$95.48 million per year (38.7%). While global studies often report declining ESVs, this study reveals a contrasting trajectory, with an annual increase of $ 3.18 million per year (1.29%), reflecting a local landscape undergoing ecological recovery. The expansion of vegetation suggests the effectiveness of ecological restoration and afforestation, while the growth of waterbodies highlights the importance of hydrological interventions and watershed protection, particularly in relation to the construction of the Gilgel Gibe III hydroelectric dam. Sensitivity analysis confirmed that vegetation and waterbodies contributed disproportionately to the increase in ESVs, with sensitivity coefficients < 1, indicating that the overall results are robust. The findings provide critical evidence for policymakers and land managers that sustainable land use planning, ecological restoration, and conservation initiatives can substantially enhance ecosystem services, offering valuable insights to scale up and sustain these efforts.