Epidemiological trends of osteoarthritis at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2050

Abstract Background Osteoarthritis is a major cause of disability worldwide, and understanding epidemiological trends in osteoarthritis is critical for public health planning and intervention strategies. Methods This study analyzed the global, regional, and national burden on osteoarthritis utilizing the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Trends from 1990 to 2021 were primarily assessed, with projections to 2050 based on demographic changes and historical data. Results In 2021, 607 (95% UI: 538–671) million people worldwide suffered from osteoarthritis, including 46.6 (95% UI: 41.1–51.6) million new cases, and the DALYs was 21.3 (95% UI: 10.2–42.9) million. Age-standardized incidence, prevalence and DALYs rates increased to 535.00/100,000 (95% UI: 472.38–591.97), 6967.29/100,000 (95% UI: 6180.70–7686.06), and 244.50/100,000 (95% UI: 117.06–493.11), with knee osteoarthritis accounting for more than 56%. Age-standardized rates of osteoarthritis were higher in females than in males. East Asia, South Asia, and Western Europe were the regions and China, India, and the United States were the countries with the highest burdens. In addition, high body-mass index led to 4.43 (95% UI: -0.42–12.34) million DALYs, with an increase of 205.10%. Bayesian age-period cohort projections showed that the burden of osteoarthritis would continue to rise from 2021 to 2050. Conclusions As an ageing population and rising obesity rates, the burden of osteoarthritis will continue to rise, with females and the middle-aged and older age groups being the current populations of concern. Awareness-raising, early detection, and effective management are essential to reduce the burden of osteoarthritis in the coming decades, especially among vulnerable groups.