Reducing under-five mortality in Tanzania: insights from a 60-years data analysis on economic and health indicators

Abstract Background Under-five mortality in Tanzania remains a persistent issue, significantly affecting both the health and economic sectors. Despite various interventions, the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) remains high, impeding progress toward global health targets. This study investigates the factors influencing under-five mortality in Tanzania, focusing on the gross domestic product (GDP), malaria incidence, access to water, and access to sanitation. Methods The study employed data sets for Tanzania U5MR, GDP, access to water and sanitation, and malaria incidences from the World Bank for the years 1960–2020. Missing values are generated through the linear trend at point method. To analyses the data, correlation analysis and Bayesian linear regression are employed. Results The analysis reveals significant relationships between the gross domestic product (GDP), malaria incidence, access to water, access to sanitation and under-five mortality. Furthermore, an increase in malaria incidences increase under-five mortality by 0.14 (14%), while access to water and sanitation exhibit an uncertain relationship. On the other hand, results show that an increase in the GDP lowers the likelihood of U5MR. Conclusion These findings underscore the importance of economic development and public health interventions in reducing the child mortality rate. The study provides valuable insights for policymakers aiming to achieve Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Target 3.2 by 2030, which aims for all countries to accomplish U5MR of 25 or less deaths per 1000 live births. By highlighting the relationships between these variables, the study contributes practical evidence to support efforts towards SDG 3.2, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions in both health and infrastructure sectors.