Pancreatic cancer in China: the analysis of cancer mortality and burden in China, 2008–2021

Abstract Objective To understand the baseline characteristics and changing trends of pancreatic cancer mortality and disease burden, we statistically analyze the mortality data among Chinese residents from 2008 to 2021. Methods Pancreatic cancer mortality data were selected from China Cause of Death Surveillance Dataset. We calculated Crude Mortality Rate (CMR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), potential years of life lost (PYLL), and PYLL rate (PYLLR) stratified by sex, age, urban/rural residence, and region (eastern/central/western China). The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was used to quantify trends in ASMR and PYLLR. Chi-square tests (R4.4.3) assessed mortality differences across subgroups, while an age-period-cohort (APC) model analyzed the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on mortality trends. Results The ASMR of pancreatic cancer in China increased from 3.67/100,000 in 2008 to 4.45/100,000 in 2021 (AAPC = 1.09%), while PYLLR rose from 0.23% to 0.35% (AAPC = 3.13%). Subgroup disparities: Both ASMR and PYLLR were higher in males than females, urban than rural areas, and eastern > central > western regions. Burden acceleration: The fastest increases occurred in males (vs. females), rural (vs. urban), and western > central > eastern regions. Conclusion Pancreatic cancer mortality and disease burden in China show a sustained upward trend, disproportionately affecting older adults, males, urban residents, and eastern populations. Rapid escalation in males, rural areas, and western regions underscores the need for targeted interventions.