Tracking Consumption-Led Economic Development in Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration Based on VHSD-EM Analysis

Consumption-led economic growth is crucial for enhancing economic resilience, improving social welfare, and fostering endogenous drivers for innovative development. The purpose of this study is to develop a novel multi-criteria evaluation framework to assess the level of consumption-led economic development in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration. Initially, an evaluation system for consumption-led economic development is constructed across five dimensions: economic autonomy, demand structure, consumption level, consumption structure, and consumption environment. The evaluation framework based on the Vertical and Horizontal Scatter Degree and Entropy Method (VHSD-EM), is then applied to analyze the development level of consumption-led patterns in the core cities of the Yangtze River Delta in China from 2015 to 2021. The empirical results reveal significant disparities in consumption-led economic development among the cities. In 2021, Shanghai achieved the highest comprehensive score (7.83), followed by Hangzhou, Suzhou, Hefei, Ningbo, and Nanjing. The average score for the region was 7.37, suggesting that the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is transitioning toward a consumption-led growth model, with some cities exhibiting characteristics of a high-mass consumption stage. However, the development stages vary across cities, reflecting differences in economic structure and policy focus. Finally, several recommendations are suggested based on the numerical analysis.