The Drivers of Planning and Development in Flood‐Prone Areas: A Case Study of Santa Cruz, California

ABSTRACT Housing in the United States faces an escalating threat of flooding due to climate change and population growth patterns. This study focuses on the most flood‐prone neighborhoods of Santa Cruz, California, to examine development trends and explain the drivers of residential growth in these areas. We take a mixed‐methods approach that combines an analysis of development trends, a content analysis of 11 adopted plans, and four semi‐structured interviews. We find that housing growth in the special flood hazard area (SFHA) has increased since 1960 and that the majority of new development in the study area is in the SFHA. Local plans generally acknowledge flood hazards—though they lack data about disparities in risk—and are particularly focused on resisting and accommodating water. Interviewees asserted that risks from flooding have been largely mitigated via infrastructure and policy; housing needs outweigh flood risks as a primary concern for residents; and building in the downtown SFHA is the most environmentally sustainable development alternative. Policy implications for local governments include the need to plan for equity and incorporate future flood risks; the importance of plan consistency; and the opportunity to promote a balanced set of strategies.