A framework for modelling the probability of flooding under levee breaching

Abstract Levees aim to provide protection during floods, however, these structures can breach, causing significant damage. Flood maps that include levee breaching are often limited to deterministic methods. Where probabilistic breaching is done, it often requires computationally expensive Monte Carlo simulations and an understanding of the geotechnical levee properties that are often limited. In this paper, we combine existing fragility curves and empirical breaching equations with a framework for automating levee breaching in catchments with limited geotechnical information. This method can be adapted and applied to existing 2D flood models to determine the probability of inundation, given that a breach occurs. This ultimately allows for greater emergency responses and land use planning to reduce the flood risk faced by our communities. The method was applied to four case study catchments. The results showed that including levee breaching in one catchment led to an average increase in the inundated area by 48.2% and a tripling in the potentially exposed area. However, breaching in some locations reduced the inundation extent by 12%, illustrating the potential for fuse plug levees and floodways as a flood mitigation strategy. This strategy has seen successful usage internationally. Further investigation is recommended to consider whether these mitigation strategies should be enacted.