Global and Chinese burden of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in chronic liver disease: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Abstract. Background:. Chronic liver disease (CLD), mainly non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), is a significant public health concern worldwide. This study aims to quantify the burden of NAFLD in CLD globally and within China, using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021, providing crucial insights for global and local health policies. Methods:. The study used comprehensive data from the GBD study 2021. It included estimates of prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Age-standardized rates and average annual percent change (AAPC) from 2011 to 2021 were reported. A meticulous decomposition analysis was conducted. Results:. In 2021, there were 1582.5 million prevalent cases, 47.6 million incident cases, 1.4 million deaths, and 44.4 million DALYs attributable to CLD, globally. Among these, NAFLD has emerged as the predominant cause, accounting for 78.0% of all prevalent CLD cases (1234.7 million) and 87.2% of incident cases (41.5 million). Correspondingly, NAFLD had the highest age-standardized prevalence (15,017.5 per 100,000 population) and incidence (876.5 per 100,000 population) rates among CLDs. In addition, China’s CLD age-standardized prevalence rate was 21,659.5 per 100,000 population, and the age-standardized incidence rate was 752.6 per 100,000 population, higher than the global average. From 2011 to 2021, the global prevalence rate of CLD increased slowly (AAPC = 0.17), consistent with the trend in China (AAPC = 0.23). Furthermore, the prevalence rate of NAFLD rose significantly in China (AAPC = 1.30) compared with the global average (AAPC = 0.91). Decomposition analysis also showed the worldwide increase in deaths and DALYs for NAFLD, which were primarily attributable to population growth and aging. Conclusions:. The burden of CLD and NAFLD remains substantial globally and within China in terms of high prevalence and incidence. As such, this underscores the need for targeted prevention and treatment strategies. These findings emphasize the importance of continued surveillance and research to mitigate the growing impact of liver diseases on global and Chinese health systems.