The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution
Abstrak
Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s–2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr ^−1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr ^−1 . Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to ‘climate debt’. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds’ resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.
Topik & Kata Kunci
Penulis (48)
Alaaeldin Soultan
Diego Pavón-Jordán
Ute Bradter
Brett K Sandercock
Wesley M Hochachka
Alison Johnston
Jon Brommer
Elie Gaget
Verena Keller
Peter Knaus
Karen Aghababyan
Qenan Maxhuni
Alexandre Vintchevski
Károly Nagy
Liutauras Raudonikis
Dawn Balmer
David Noble
Domingos Leitão
Ingar Jostein Øien
Paul Shimmings
Elchin Sultanov
Brian Caffrey
Kerem Boyla
Dimitrije Radišić
Åke Lindström
Metodija Velevski
Clara Pladevall
Lluís Brotons
Šťastný Karel
Draženko Z Rajković
Tomasz Chodkiewicz
Tomasz Wilk
Tibor Szép
Chris van Turnhout
Ruud Foppen
Ian Burfield
Thomas Vikstrøm
Vlatka Dumbović Mazal
Mark Eaton
Petr Vorisek
Aleksi Lehikoinen
Sergi Herrando
Tatiana Kuzmenko
Hans-Günther Bauer
Mikhail V Kalyakin
Olga V Voltzit
Jovica Sjeničić
Tomas Pärt
Akses Cepat
- Tahun Terbit
- 2022
- Sumber Database
- DOAJ
- DOI
- 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebe
- Akses
- Open Access ✓