A Tangled Ball: Russian Nuclear Policy, Relations and Risks in Northeast Asia

What roles do nuclear weapons play in the national security of Russia in the context of Northeast Asian security dynamics, and how should the regional risks associated with Russia’s nuclear weapons policy be managed? This paper argues that the growing prominence of Russia’s Far Eastern nuclear assets creates additional risks in the tangled ball of relationship threads connecting the key players in Northeast Asia. The Russian Far East houses a significant share of Russia’s strategic and non-strategic nuclear assets, and the region’s importance is set to grow as the role of nuclear weapons in Russia’s foreign and security policy expands following its war against Ukraine. As a direct consequence of the war and the growing animosity toward the United States, Russia seeks greater alignment with China and North Korea and perceives rising threats from the US allies in the region, Japan and South Korea. Meanwhile, regional tensions combine with impending proliferation of long-range strike capabilities to exacerbate risks of conflict and nuclear escalation. The solution to reducing these risks lies through multilateral arms control and risk reduction arrangements, and this paper assesses Moscow’s preferences for such negotiations if the Russian leadership joins them.