Analyzing the diversification of logistics in Central Asian countries: a study from the perspective of foreign relations

This article analyzes the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for the diversification of logistics and connectivity in Central Asia from an international political perspective. Due to its landlocked geography and structurally constrained geopolitical environment, logistics diversification constitutes a critical issue for regional actors and represents an important determinant of the foreign policy orientations of Central Asian states. The central research question addressed in this study is whether the war in Ukraine has fundamentally transformed – or has the potential to transform – the region’s existing patterns of logistical connectivity. The findings indicate that while policy-driven efforts to diversify logistics networks and promote the so-called “Middle Corridor” have intensified, these emerging routes are unlikely to replace established transit corridors in the short term. This outcome is largely attributable to the preferences and cost – benefit calculations of corporate actors, who remain the primary agents of logistics flows and exhibit limited interest in the Middle Corridor. Moreover, evidence drawn from open-source materials and field research underscores persistent structural constraints in Central Asia, particularly in terms of infrastructure, institutional capacity, and limited attractiveness for global markets and freight forwarders. Nevertheless, the activation of the Middle Corridor and broader trends toward logistics diversification appear to be advancing in a path-dependent yet increasingly irreversible manner. As such, the gradual diversification of cargo flows and its implications for the foreign economic and political relations of Central Asian states call for sustained medium- to long-term analysis.