Individuals’ emigration from Christchurch city after the 2010–2011 earthquakes

We investigate the likelihood of individuals emigrating (internally over short distances, internally over long distances and internationally) from Christchurch following the 2010–2011 earthquakes that hit the city. We consider their socio-economic and demographic characteristics to see how these are associated with their migration decisions. To achieve this, we employed a difference-in-differences (DiD) approach and estimated a multinomial logistic regression model using individual-level income data from the Inland Revenue Department and demographic data from the Census. Our findings indicate that individuals in Christchurch were more likely to emigrate internally over short distances (only in the short-term) and internally over long distances (both in the short- and long-term) following the earthquakes. No significant consequence of the earthquakes on the probability of emigrating internationally was detected. Furthermore, we provide evidence that socio-economic characteristics partly shape the emigration decisions of affected individuals. Different emigration patterns are associated with variations in socio-economic characteristics, including age, ethnicity, education and employment sectors, as well as differences in migration responses of individuals born overseas and in New Zealand.