Can pilot policies for innovative cities reduce carbon emissions? Evidence from quasi-natural experiments in 269 cities in China

This study examines whether the innovative city pilot policy launched by the Chinese government in 2008 has reduced or exacerbated urban carbon emissions. Using panel data from 269 cities in China (2007–2016) and applying a difference-in-differences approach, we find that the policy significantly increased carbon emissions. On average, annual per capita emissions in innovative cities reached 35,400 tons, compared to 19,100 tons in non-innovative cities, reflecting a 1.85% increase. These results suggest that while innovation-driven urban policies foster economic and technological progress, they may also intensify energy use and emissions, raising concerns about environmental effectiveness. Mechanism analysis indicates that impacts operate through innovation capacity, output levels, and development incentives. The findings highlight the importance of aligning innovation policies with sustainability goals. This study contributes by providing evidence on the unintended environmental effects of innovation pilots and offering policy insights for building innovative yet low-carbon cities in China.