Determinants of youth unemployment in Barranquilla, Colombia: a multi-method analysis of education, work experience, and socioeconomic factors

This study examines the complex factors influencing youth unemployment in Barranquilla, Colombia, focusing on the roles of education, work experience, and socioeconomic background. Employing a multi-method approach combining logistic regression, chi-square tests, ANOVA, and Random Forest analysis, the research analyzes data from 2,250 young adults aged 18–28. Results show postgraduate education reduces unemployment odds by 70.92%, while each month of work experience decreases unemployment odds by 2.32%. Youths from lower socioeconomic strata face unemployment rates of 28.45% compared to 18.76% in higher strata. The Random Forest model identifies critical threshold points where education and experience yield maximum benefits. Policy implications include targeting work experience programmes to the 7–18-month period when benefits accelerate, focusing education support on completion thresholds, and combining education access with work opportunities for lower-income youth. The study advances youth unemployment research by quantifying precise threshold effects, documenting monthly experience impacts.