Analysis of the evolution of the marginal effect of human capital structure in the process of industrial structure evolution

Abstract The human capital structure changes as the industrial structure evolves. In order to achieve the matching development of human capital structure and industrial structure, this study, based on the theoretical framework of the dynamic evolution of the human capital structure, selects the panel data of 284 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2003 to 2019 to explore the impact of China’s human capital structure on the upgrading of the industrial structure and the dynamic evolution of the marginal effect of the human capital structure. The results of the study reveal that the optimization of human capital structure can significantly promote the upgrading of the industrial structure, but this promotion is not significant during the industrialization stage and in small cities. The results of the quantile regression show that as the adjustment of the industrial structure deepens, the marginal effect of the human capital structure gradually increases. The mechanism test shows that the human capital structure can promote the upgrading of the industrial structure by facilitating technological progress, increasing total factor productivity, and boosting technology transactions. In the further examination, this study measures the human capital structure from the dimension of skill training, and finds that there is an obvious substitution effect between training and education. This substitution effect gradually weakens as the industrial structure upgrades. Therefore, it is recommended that local governments formulate policies for talent cultivation and introduction in combination with the current development situation of the industrial structure, strike a proper balance between talent introduction policies and industrial structure adjustment plans, and promote the coordinated development of human capital structure and industrial structure.