DOAJ Open Access 2023

Scenario analysis of Taiwan's nuclear phase‐out strategy with time series forecasting

Jane Lu Hsu Minh‐Trang Vo Nguyen You‐Ren Chen Wen Chuan Chang

Abstrak

Abstract Electricity generation in Taiwan is mainly from thermal, nuclear, and renewable sources. With nearly four decades of monthly data (from January 1982 to January 2022) used in analytics, the forecasting results reveal the patterns of electricity generation in Taiwan. Exponential smoothing and Holt–Winters seasonal models are used for time‐series forecasting, and scenario analysis is applied to simulate possible paths for nuclear phase‐out in Taiwan by 2025. Taking the fact of Taiwan's lack of energy independence into account, transition for nuclear phase‐out may require a substantial leap to meet the demand. The feasibility of electricity generation using current thermal power capacity and renewable energy remain challenging.

Topik & Kata Kunci

Distribution or transmission of electric power Production of electric energy or power. Powerplants. Central stations

Penulis (4)

Jane Lu Hsu

Minh‐Trang Vo Nguyen

You‐Ren Chen

Wen Chuan Chang

Format Sitasi

APA MLA BibTeX

Hsu, J.L., Nguyen, M.V., Chen, Y., Chang, W.C. (2023). Scenario analysis of Taiwan's nuclear phase‐out strategy with time series forecasting. https://doi.org/10.1049/gtd2.12998

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Informasi Jurnal

Tahun Terbit: 2023
Sumber Database: DOAJ
DOI: 10.1049/gtd2.12998
Akses: Open Access ✓