Analytical prediction method of power system frequency deviation under uncertain power fluctuations

Abstract In modern power systems, the impact of random power sources and loads on power systems is increasing, resulting in threatened system frequency security. However, traditional methods are often not comprehensive in modelling randomness, and there is no analytical method to assess the frequency response of power systems under uncertain power fluctuations. Here, the power fluctuation in a power system is regarded as an interval random quantity. An analytical prediction method of the power system frequency deviation under uncertain power fluctuation is proposed. Through further deduction, the allowable range of power fluctuation under the premise of secure frequency deviation can also be defined, which provides a reference for frequency security and accident prevention in power systems. Numerical simulations with the model of the East China Power Grid demonstrate that the proposed analytical method can delimit the response interval of system frequency deviation well, and the backstepping calculation can also delimit the allowable range of power fluctuation to ensure the secure operation of the system.