Transformer maintenance decision based on condition monitoring and fuzzy probability hybrid reliability assessment

Abstract Equipment maintenance decision is a very critical technology in power grid asset management. The traditional maintenance decision focuses on the analysis of the operation performance of the equipment itself, but lacks the analysis and description of the fuzziness of power equipment outage parameters. Therefore, this paper establishes the reliability assessment model based on equipment health condition monitoring, which makes the maintenance decision transition from equipment level to system level, and the fuzzy mathematics theory is introduced to establish a model describing the fuzziness of equipment failure rate parameter to make system reliability assessment and equipment maintenance decision scheme. Firstly, this paper proposes a fuzzy failure rate model of power transformer based on condition monitoring. Then the fuzzy parameters are combined with the conventional probabilistic reliability assessment method to establish the fuzzy probability hybrid reliability assessment model of the transmission system, and the fuzzy maintenance reliability benefit index is defined and deduced. Finally, a maintenance strategy of transformer based on fuzzy probability hybrid reliability assessment and fuzzy set theory is proposed, and the case study is carried out on a regional power grid in East China. The results show that the proposed model provides an improved maintenance strategy of power equipment.