Role of Pacific Ocean climate in regulating runoff in the source areas of water transfer projects on the Pacific Rim

Abstract Over the past two decades, more frequent and intense climate events have seriously threatened the operation of water transfer projects in the Pacific Rim region. However, the role of climatic change in driving runoff variations in the water source areas of these projects is unclear. We used tree-ring data to reconstruct changes in the runoff of the Hanjiang River since 1580 CE representing an important water source area for China’s south-north water transfer project. Comparisons with hydroclimatic reconstructions for the southwestern United States and central Chile indicated that the Pacific Rim region has experienced multiple coinciding droughts related to ENSO activity. Climate simulations indicate an increased likelihood of drought occurrence in the Pacific Rim region in the coming decades. The combination of warming-induced drought stresses with dynamic El Niño (warming ENSO) patterns is a thread to urban agglomerations and agricultural regions that rely on water transfer projects along the Pacific Rim.