Integration of Gaussian process regression and K means clustering for enhanced short term rainfall runoff modeling

Abstract Accurate rainfall-runoff modeling is crucial for effective watershed management, hydraulic infrastructure safety, and flood mitigation. However, predicting rainfall-runoff remains challenging due to the nonlinear interplay between hydro-meteorological and topographical variables. This study introduces a hybrid Gaussian process regression (GPR) model integrated with K-means clustering (GPR-K-means) for short-term rainfall-runoff forecasting. The Orgeval watershed in France serves as the study area, providing hourly precipitation and streamflow data spanning 1970–2012. The performance of the GPR-K-means model is compared with standalone GPR and principal component regression (PCR) models across four forecasting horizons: 1-hour, 6-hour, 12-hour, and 24-hour ahead. The results reveal that the GPR-K-means model significantly improves forecasting accuracy across all lead times, with a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of approximately 0.999, 0.942, 0.891, and 0.859 for 1-hour, 6-hour, 12-hour, and 24-hour forecasts, respectively. These results outperform other ML models, such as Long Short-Term Memory, Support Vector Machines, and Random Forest, reported in the literature. The GPR-K-means model demonstrates enhanced reliability and robustness in hourly streamflow forecasting, emphasizing its potential for broader application in hydrological modeling. Furthermore, this study provides a novel methodology for combining clustering and Bayesian regression techniques in surface hydrology, contributing to more accurate and timely flood prediction.