Impact of economic growth patterns on carbon quota allocation by industry in China: extensive or intensive

Abstract Economic growth is closely related to carbon emissions, and determining the appropriate emission reduction targets for various sectors under different economic models has always been a challenge. This paper utilizes an Energy-Economic-Environment CGE model to simulate two types of economic growth models: extensive and intensive. Four economic growth scenarios are defined, and initial carbon quota allocations for various sectors are obtained for China at two key points: the peak year (2029) and the post-peak year (2035). The ZSG-DEA model is applied, considering the principles of fairness and efficiency, to iterate carbon efficiency across 33 industries and obtain quota adjustment values. The results indicate that the innovation-driven scenario, representing intensive growth, achieves a win-win outcome compared to other scenarios by enhancing GDP and avoiding additional carbon reduction costs. The initial carbon emission efficiency in agriculture, chemicals, steel, electronics, water supply, and services all reached 1. Comparative analysis reveals that the sectors of electricity, chemicals, coal, and cement face higher emission reduction pressures, while agriculture and services experience relatively lower pressures.