Explainable ML modeling of saltwater intrusion control with underground barriers in coastal sloping aquifers

Abstract Reliable modeling of saltwater intrusion (SWI) into freshwater aquifers is essential for the sustainable management of coastal groundwater resources and the protection of water quality. This study evaluates the performance of four Bayesian-optimized gradient boosting models in predicting the SWI wedge length ratio (L/L a ) in coastal sloping aquifers with underground barriers. A dataset of 456 samples was generated through numerical simulations using SEAWAT, incorporating key variables such as bed slope, hydraulic gradient, relative density, relative hydraulic conductivity, barrier wall depth ratio, and distance ratio. The dataset was divided into 70% for training and 30% for testing. Model performance was assessed using both visual and quantitative metrics. Among the models, Light Gradient Boosting (LGB) achieved the highest predictive accuracy, with RMSE values of 0.016 and 0.037 for the training and testing sets, respectively, and the highest coefficient of determination (R²). Stochastic Gradient Boosting (SGB) followed closely, while Categorical Gradient Boosting (CGB) and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) showed slightly higher error rates. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis identified relative barrier wall distance and bed slope as the most influential features affecting model predictions. To support practical application, an interactive graphical user interface (GUI) was developed, allowing users to input key variables and easily estimate L/L a values. Finally, the best-performing model was validated against the Akrotiri coastal aquifer in Cyprus, a realistic benchmark case derived from numerical simulations. The model’s predictions showed strong agreement with reference results, achieving an RMSE of 0.04, thereby confirming its practical applicability. This study highlights the potential of interpretable, optimized ML models to enhance SWI prediction and support informed decision-making in coastal aquifer management.