Spatiotemporal dynamics of rural settlement evolution in Guangdong Province, China

Abstract This study analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamics of rural settlement evolution in Guangdong Province, China, examining their transformation amid rapid urbanization and industrialization over the past 20 years. Rural settlements serve as primary spatial carriers for production and living activities, embodying multiple functions including production, living, ecological, and cultural aspects. Using GIS-based analytical tools, including landscape pattern indices, average nearest neighbor index, kernel density estimation, and geographical detector methods, we examined settlement evolution patterns and their driving factors. Results show a continuous decline in settlement numbers, while patch areas exhibited a U-shaped trend of decreasing then increasing. Settlement patterns shifted from “reduction” to “integration”, with intensifying spatial agglomeration over time. The Pearl River Delta and Eastern Guangdong regions followed similar trajectories, reflecting the impact of urbanization and industrialization on rural development. Multiple factors, including natural conditions, socioeconomic variables, and locational accessibility, drove these changes. The spatial distribution of rural settlements demonstrates an overall trend of agglomeration, which has gradually intensified over time, leading to significant variations in settlement density across different regions. The findings reveal significant regional disparities and temporal changes in settlement patterns, highlighting the complex interplay between rural transformation and urban development. This research contributes to understanding rural transformation processes in developing countries and emphasizes the need for differentiated approaches in spatial planning and rural revitalization strategies to address the challenges of disordered land expansion and population hollowing while promoting sustainable rural development.