DOAJ Open Access 2023

Rare Event Simulation of Extreme European Winter Rainfall in an Intermediate Complexity Climate Model

Jeroen Wouters Reinhard K. H. Schiemann Len C. Shaffrey

Abstrak

Abstract We test the application of a rare event simulation (RES) algorithm to accelerate the sampling of extreme winter rainfall over Europe in a climate model. The genealogical particle analysis algorithm, an ensemble method that interrupts the simulation at intermediate times to clone realizations in which an extreme event is developing, is applied to the intermediate complexity general circulation model PlaSim. We show that the algorithm strongly reduces the numerical effort required to estimate probabilities of extremes, demonstrating the potential of RES of seasonal precipitation extremes.

Topik & Kata Kunci

Physical geography Oceanography

Penulis (3)

Jeroen Wouters

Reinhard K. H. Schiemann

Len C. Shaffrey

Format Sitasi

APA MLA BibTeX

Wouters, J., Schiemann, R.K.H., Shaffrey, L.C. (2023). Rare Event Simulation of Extreme European Winter Rainfall in an Intermediate Complexity Climate Model. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022MS003537

Akses Cepat

PDF tidak tersedia langsung

Cek di sumber asli →

Lihat di Sumber doi.org/10.1029/2022MS003537

Informasi Jurnal

Tahun Terbit: 2023
Sumber Database: DOAJ
DOI: 10.1029/2022MS003537
Akses: Open Access ✓