Artificial intelligence and the conjectural sciences

Drawing on prior work in the history and philosophy of statistics, I argue that in many cases analyses powered by artificial-intelligence (AI) techniques such as machine learning (ML) are fundamentally ‘conjectural’: reliant on ex post facto abductive logics often misinterpreted in contemporary machine-learning systems as reliably reproducible truth. Here I relate what Carlo Ginzburg calls ‘the conjectural sciences’ as a historical category to their contemporary instantiation in machine learning and the practice of ‘automated conjecture’. I observe how the automation of physiognomic and phrenological concepts are exemplary of the ways in which discredited conjectural pseudosciences are being revived by today's AI research. Finally, I argue that the conceptual distinction between ‘conjectural’ and ‘empirical’ science can help support contemporary efforts to regulate the design and use of AI systems by providing conceptual and historical justification for the non-development of certain classes of systems intended to automate inference.