Partial replacement of red and processed meat with legumes: a modelling study of the impact on nutrient intakes and nutrient adequacy on the population level

Abstract Objective: The shift towards plant-based diets with less meat and more legumes is a global target and requires an understanding of the consequences of dietary adequacy on the population level. Our aim was to model the impact of partial replacement of red and processed meat with legumes on nutrient intakes and population shares below dietary reference intakes. Design: Modelling study with three scenarios anchored in meat cut-offs: ≤ 70 g/d (Finnish dietary guideline); ≤ 50 g/d (Danish dietary guideline); ≤ 30 g/d (EAT-Lancet recommendation). In all subjects, the amount of meat in grams over the cut-off was replaced with the same amount of legumes. The SPADE method was used to model usual intake distributions. Meaningful differences in average intakes and in population shares below dietary reference intakes compared to the reference (FinDiet) were evaluated based on non-overlapping 95 % CI. Setting: Finnish national food consumption survey (FinDiet 2017). Subjects: Finnish adults (n 1655) aged18–74 years (47 % men). Results: The scenarios introduced increases in the average intakes of fibre, folate, K, Mg, Cu and Fe, and decreases in intakes of saturated fat, niacin, vitamin B12, Se and Zn. Meaningful shifts of the usual intake distributions of fibre and folate towards improvement in intakes emerged already in ‘scenario 70 g’. Overall, distribution shifts towards a higher probability of inadequate intakes of the studied nutrients were not observed. Conclusions: These results support the public health message to partly replace meat with legumes and may benefit nutrition policy actions towards sustainable diets in the Nordic countries and beyond.