Determinants of household participation in natural forest regeneration: Evidence from a model forest in Dedza, Central Malawi

Deforestation remains a prominent issue in Malawi's forest reserves and village forest areas. The Kapirimutu village forest has exhibited a significant increase in forest cover over the previous decade due to community involvement in natural forest regeneration (NFR) initiatives. This study investigates the determinants of household participation in the successful NFR initiatives in the Kapirimutu village forest, a model forest in central Malawi, which has witnessed a substantial increase in forest cover (12 % to > 65 % between 2003 and 2023). Analyzing socio-demographic, institutional, and economic factors using a logistic regression model, the findings reveal that institutional support, particularly NFR incentives and group membership, are strong positive predictors of participation. Environmental awareness and social capital also significantly enhance engagement. Conversely, higher education levels and income diversification negatively influence participation, suggesting potential trade-offs with alternative livelihood strategies. Economic factors such as livestock ownership and forest dependency positively correlate with participation, while greater market distance and perceived opportunity costs act as deterrents. Notably, the sex of the household head and household size were not significant predictors. These results underscore the critical role of institutional mechanisms and economic context in driving community-led forest restoration, highlighting the need for tailored incentives and strategies to engage diverse household profiles and ensure the long-term sustainability of NFR efforts in the area.