Tracking terbium metabolism in China with implications for its dominance in global rare earth supply

Terbium (Tb), a critical heavy rare earth element, faces intensifying supply–demand imbalances driven by its irreplaceable role in green technologies and geopolitical supply chain complexities. To explore sustainable pathways for Tb, this study establishes a spatially and temporally explicit material flow analysis framework to map Tb’s life cycle dynamics across China’s socioeconomic systems (1990–2024) and global trade networks. Results reveal that Asia and Europe as pivotal hubs, with China dominating 68.57% (1.05 × 104 t) of global Tb flows, primarily channeled into phosphors (peaking at 74.5% in 2007) and permanent magnets (90% of post-2021. Historically, Tb flows have been closely tied to industrial product cycles. From 1990 to 2024, approximately 1.16 × 104 t of Tb were mined and processed into various end-use products. Fluorescent lamps were historically the dominant end use; however, since 2014, permanent magnets have become precedence, accounting for 90% of the market flow in 2024, followed by new energy technologies and household appliances. Tb demand in the new energy sector is expected to exceed that of household appliances and become the main driver of consumption. Therefore, the most significant potential for Tb recovery resides in fluorescent lamps and home appliances, which account for 63% of total recovery in 2023. However, an urgent imperative exists for the proactive development of systematic recycling industries to address the imminent surge in end-of-life products such as wind turbines and new energy vehicles. To achieve global sustainability of Tb, technology-accelerated pathways urgently require diversified supply sources and innovations in industrial-scale recycling.