Spatiotemporal dynamics and socioeconomic drivers of agricultural methane emissions in China from 2000 to 2020

China is the world’s largest emitter of agricultural methane (AGM). However, limited attention has been given to its spatial distribution, driving factors, and long-term temporal trends, which are crucial for the development of targeted emission control strategies and the achievement of carbon neutrality. This study employs the IPCC model to estimate AGM emissions in China from 2000 to 2020 in mainland China to explore the long-term trend and influencing factors using the q-statistic of Geodetector. Additionally, gravity theory is applied to analyze spatial shifts in AGM emissions over time. The results reveal that the AGM emissions in 2020 reached 18.38 Tg, with enteric fermentation as the largest contributor, accounting for 52.58 % of total emissions. Significant stratified heterogeneity is observed, with western provinces showing higher emissions. The primary socioeconomic drivers - the value of the primary industry and its share of GDP - influence AGM emissions by shaping land-use patterns, agricultural practices, and resource consumption, thereby altering emission dynamics. Gravity theory analysis shows a northwestward shift in the gravity center of AGM emissions from 2000 to 2020. Specifically, emissions from animal husbandry exhibited a consistent northwestward migration, while emissions from rice cultivation shifted northeastward. The findings reveal significant spatial heterogeneity in AGM emissions, with higher emissions in eastern regions driven by rapid economic growth and stricter agricultural policies, while emissions in the western regions are more influenced by natural environmental factors and traditional farming practices. This study pioneers the application of gravity theory to analyze AGM emission dynamics in China, identifying key socioeconomic drivers and providing a scientific basis for region-specific mitigation strategies to support carbon neutrality goals.