The “triple burden” effect and “pressure-opportunity paradox” of net-zero transitions: Exploring the political economy of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) implementation in the Global South

This paper examines the geopolitical and equity implications of the EU CBAM for four Global South countries—Brazil, South Africa, India and China—through a political economy perspective. Drawing on case studies and thematic analysis, this paper explores how these four countries differ in their adaptive capacities to CBAM implementation. It also examines the opportunities and challenges posed by CBAM and highlights key lessons for other countries in the Global South. The findings show that national responses to CBAM are shaped not only by economic factors, but also by political ideologies and development paradigms. Brazil, South Africa, India, and China each face a “triple burden” of compliance costs, institutional constraints, and social inequalities, compounded by risks of trade retaliation and resource shuffling. These asymmetric impacts highlight the limitations of one-size-fits-all climate mechanisms like CBAM and raise broader concerns about institutional fragmentation and global equity. Despite these challenges, this study identifies a “pressure-opportunity paradox”, whereby external regulatory pressure such as CBAM can also trigger domestic institutional reform, technological innovation, and industrial upgrading, especially under conditions of asymmetric trade dependence. Finally, we propose strategic priorities including climate transition support mechanisms funded by CBAM revenues, developing flexible carbon accounting systems aligned with national capabilities, embedding social protection in green industrial policy, and strengthening South-South cooperation to promote a more inclusive and equitable transition.