Impacts of aquifer heterogeneity on subsidence resulting from engineering dewatering in the Lower Yangtze River plains

Study region: Lower Yangtze River alluvial plain, China. Study focus: The uneven subsidence caused by dewatering in underground engineering constructions in densely populated areas of alluvial plains with an unevenly distributed medium has caused increased concerns. This study applied the transition probability geostatistical software (T-PROGS) geostatistical models based on data from 31 boreholes to characterize a three-dimensional (3D) heterogeneous aquifer (8.8×105 m2 in area and 56 m in depth) in an underground construction area in the alluvial plain of the lower Yangtze River. The SUB model was constructed to simulate the pumping-induced subsidence processes based on a reliable MODFLOW transit flow model. New hydrological insights: The simulation results indicated that surface subsidence increased with pumping and reached a maximum of 33 mm by the end of the extraction (the 14th day). Surface subsidence development exhibited spatial anisotropy around the pumping center, consistent with the observations. Furthermore, the proposed model indicates that hydraulic head evolution and soil compressibility distributions significantly influence the spatial–temporal development of subsidence, implying the significance of the aquifer heterogeneity. The compressible soft soil overlying the pumping section was identified as a vulnerable subsidence zone, suggesting its significance for engineering geological surveys and dewatering designs in underground construction in alluvial plains.