Urban morphology-energy consumption nexus: A multi-criteria weather vulnerability analysis model for city planning

The construction sector, particularly buildings, significantly contributes to global energy consumption and carbon emissions. Despite efforts to mitigate environmental impacts, the sector remains poorly prepared for climate change and external shocks. This study proposes a spatial modeling-based framework to assess cities' energy vulnerability, focusing on building- and neighborhood-scale interventions for climate-resilient construction. Methodologically, the study integrates geographical information systems (GIS) and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to develop a novel Weather Vulnerability Index (WVI), which is demonstrated as a proof-of-concept in the City of Joensuu, Eastern Finland. While GIS–MCDA integration has been used earlier, this study advances its application by adapting it to weather-driven urban energy vulnerability and operationalizing IPCC's vulnerability assessment framework in a dual-scale approach. The WVI employs openly accessible datasets and a flexible structure that accommodates contextually relevant variables, while ensuring adaptability across diverse urban settings. It is particularly effective for small- and mid-sized cities, where adaptable and data-efficient tools remain scarce. The WVI classifies neighborhoods based on their vulnerability to high energy consumption and supports targeted interventions, such as retrofits and greening, offering decision-makers a transparent and transferable tool for advancing sustainable and climate-resilient urban development.