DOAJ Open Access 2021

Forecasting oil tanker shipping market in crisis periods: Exponential smoothing model application

George Moiseev

Abstrak

This paper fills the gap in the literature of applying an exponential smoothing model in the oil shipping market forecasting. The author refines the adaptive combined model with B-criterion based on Brown's model with modification by Trigg and Leach. Forecasting the values of the average time-charter equivalent of a tanker along 6 different routes of oil transportation in the world ocean during the crisis period 2015–2019. The accuracy of the proposed method is superior to naive, autoregression methods and machine learning models in all used error metrics. The obtained accuracy in 71% of cases is available for commercial use by operators and charterers of the tanker fleet.

Topik & Kata Kunci

Shipment of goods. Delivery of goods

Penulis (1)

George Moiseev

Format Sitasi

APA MLA BibTeX

Moiseev, G. (2021). Forecasting oil tanker shipping market in crisis periods: Exponential smoothing model application. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajsl.2021.06.002

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Informasi Jurnal

Tahun Terbit: 2021
Sumber Database: DOAJ
DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2021.06.002
Akses: Open Access ✓