Navigating the Zhongkao: How perceived parental expectations shape adolescents' transition choices in China

Accelerating and universalizing senior-high-school education is critical for advancing educational equity, particularly in Asia where senior-high-school entrance examination policies (e.g., China's zhongkao) shape adolescent trajectories. Grounded in Human Capital Theory, this study employs unordered multinomial logistic regression to examine how adolescents' perceived parental expectations across five dimensions—academic performance, physical/mental health, future achievement, behavioral conduct, and interpersonal relationships—influence their post-junior-highschool pathway intentions in Western China (N = 1077). Key findings reveal: (1) Adolescents identified parental expectations as the primary determinant (78.3 % of respondents) of their tracking decisions; (2) each 1-point increase in perceived parental academic expectations significantly reduced dropout intention odds by 75.1 % (OR = 0.249, p* < .01), while lower parental expectations predicted stronger inclinations toward vocational pathways or workforce entry; (3) systemic gaps persist: 88% of adolescents lacked professional career guidance, with 92 % relying solely on teachers for zhongkao policy information. This research yields three primary contributions: An empirical framework for facilitating parent-adolescent expectation alignment, potentially mitigating transitional conflicts; robust empirical evidence supporting the enhancement of professional career guidance services; a cross-culturally adaptable methodology for adolescent development studies. Implications for educational equity initiatives and counseling practices in Asian contexts are discussed.