Recommendations for Selecting Experts with the Required Expertise to Forecast the Military and Political Situation

The relevance of this research is determined by the fact that the current military and political environment is characterised by high dynamism, unpredictability and the interdependence of a wide range of political, economic, military, social and technological factors. Under conditions of increasing complexity in global and regional processes, there arises a critical need for the development of high-quality forecasts that enable informed decision-making in the field of defence and national security. One of the key tools in such forecasting is expert evaluation. However, the effectiveness of this method is directly dependent on the competence of experts and the objectivity of their judgments. Therefore, the problem of selecting experts with a specified level of competence becomes particularly relevant, as it directly affects the reliability of forecasts and the ability to consider a broad spectrum of factors shaping the military and political environment. The aim of the study is to develop recommendations for the selection of experts with a defined level of competence in order to improve the credibility of forecasting military and political processes. To achieve this objective, the study employs methods of expert evaluation, systems analysis, mathematical modelling, pairwise comparison techniques, aggregation of expert opinions, and approaches to determining integrated indicators of competence. The combination of these methods allows for a comprehensive understanding of the experts' potential capabilities, taking into account their formal characteristics such as position, academic degree and professional experience, while simultaneously verifying their practical ability to work with complex multi-factor forecasting tasks. The research resulted in the development of a methodological approach for assessing expert competence. This approach includes the use of competence coefficients, analysis of judgment consistency, identification of transitivity violations and evaluation of objectivity. A group expert evaluation procedure has been proposed, allowing for the adjustment of expert group composition according to criteria of consistency and assessment quality. This approach helps minimise the influence of subjective factors, increases the reliability of outcomes and ensures more accurate forecasts regarding the development of the military and political situation. The practical orientation of the study lies in the fact that the results can be applied by military command bodies, analytical centres and institutions within the security and defence sector for organising expert studies. They can also be used in the preparation and formation of expert groups engaged in strategic forecasting. The proposed recommendations may prove valuable for researchers working on national security and military forecasting, as well as for practitioners responsible for planning and decision-making in the defence and public administration sectors. These findings provide a foundation for further scientific exploration aimed at improving methods of expert forecasting, integrating analytical models with modern information systems and enhancing tools for assessing competence under conditions of uncertainty.