Enhancing flood and drought forecasting tools in the South Nation River Watershed

With climate change, managing the variability in changing watershed conditions, from floods to droughts, is a challenge. Having the necessary information, in a timely manner, is critical for proper planning and implementing mitigating measures. South Nation Conservation's (SNC) recent project with IBM and Aquanty, the development of a data-assimilation and hydrological simulation platform, aims to improve short term (1 - 14 d) forecasting of flooding and droughts. The project will construct a real-time hydrologic model for South Nation Watershed. This fully integrated 3-dimensional groundwater - surface water model is dynamically coupled to state-of-the-art high resolution (4000 m) short-term weather forecasts (provided by IBM's Weather Company) and real-time field sensors throughout the Watershed. The model will enhance SNC's Flood Forecasting and Warning and Low Water Response programs with more accurate forecasts; utilizing over 200 local weather data points (compared to the previous 3 Environment Canada stations) to capture the diversity of weather patterns across the Watershed. The new real-time sensors to collect precipitation (rain and snow) and soil moisture will allow the model to better predict how forecasted weather events will impact watershed conditions. For example, is a significant rainfall event more likely to runoff into nearby watercourses or soak into the ground. Beyond its direct application to the South Nation Watershed, this project will provide a proof-of-concept demonstration of how the latest in weather forecasting and hydrologic modelling technologies can support water resources management under increasingly variable climate/weather conditions. It is anticipated that this project will provide far-reaching benefit to SNC, local producers, municipalities, and rural landowners throughout the region This project was made possible with funding support from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.