Optimizing Cold Food Supply Chains for Enhanced Food Availability Under Climate Variability

Produce supply chains play a critical role in ensuring fruits and vegetables reach consumers efficiently, affordably, and at optimal freshness. In recent decades, hub-and-spoke network models have emerged as valuable tools for optimizing sustainable cold food supply chains. Traditional optimization efforts typically focus on removing inefficiencies, minimizing lead times, refining inventory management, strengthening supplier relationships, and leveraging technological advancements for better visibility and control. However, the majority of models rely on deterministic approaches that overlook the inherent uncertainties of crop yields, which are further intensified by climate variability. Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations, along with shifting temperature patterns and extreme weather events, have a substantial effect on crop productivity and availability. Such uncertainties can prompt distributors to seek alternative sources, increasing costs due to supply chain reconfiguration. This research introduces a stochastic hub-and-spoke network optimization model specifically designed to minimize transportation expenses by determining optimal distribution routes that explicitly account for climate variability effects on crop yields. A use case involving a cold food supply chain (CFSC) was carried out using several weather scenarios based on climate models and real soil data for California. Strawberries were selected as a representative crop, given California’s leading role in strawberry production. Simulation results show that scenarios characterized by increased rainfall during growing seasons result in increased yields, allowing distributors to reduce transportation costs by sourcing from nearby farms. Conversely, scenarios with reduced rainfall and lower yields require sourcing from more distant locations, thereby increasing transportation costs. Nonetheless, supply chain configurations may vary depending on the choice of climate models or weather prediction sources, highlighting the importance of regularly updating scenario inputs to ensure robust planning. This tool aids decision-making by planning climate-resilient supply chains, enhancing preparedness and responsiveness to future climate-related disruptions.