A Mathematical Population Growth Model for Urban Water Security Management and Sustainability in Cities (Case Study: Tabriz City)

In this research, a new conceptual framework introduced to analysis of water security. Using the exponential, logistic growth model, and employing the historical population of Tabriz city from 1956 to 2016, the future period (2022-2100) population predicted. Pearson Correlation, Spearman's Rho and Kendall's rank coefficients were used for analyzing correlation between population and water consumption. In addition, the amount of city water demand in the future period predicted using the ordinary least square model. Then, water stress and water scarcity indices calculated for Tabriz city in the future period. Results indicated that the mathematical population growth models are very suitable for prediction of city population. There was a significant positive correlation between the city population and water demand. In addition, the amount of water demand will proportionally increase with rising number of population. Finally, linear and quadratic equations presented for city water demand based on the city population number. It can be concluded that Tabriz city will be faced with severe water stress in the future period. The proposed new method in this study can be used for other different cities of the world. Also, Results will be helpful for decision makers in optimum management of urban water resources.