Analysis of Integrated Vapor Transport Biases

Abstract High-fidelity analyses and forecasts of integrated vapor transport (VT) are central to the study of Earth’s hydrological cycle as well as high-impact phenomena such as monsoons and atmospheric rivers. The impact of the in-line analysis correction-based additive inflation (ACAI) on IVT biases and forecast errors is examined within the Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (Navy ESPC) global coupled system. The ACAI technique uses atmospheric analysis corrections from the data assimilation system to approximate model bias and as a representation of stochastic model error to simultaneously reduce systematic and random errors and improve ensemble performance. ACAI reduces the global average magnitude of the 7- and 14-day IVT bias by 16%–17% during Northern Hemisphere summer, reaching 70% reductions in some tropical regions. The global average IVT bias reduction is similar to the bias reduction for low-level wind speed bias and considerably smaller than the bias reduction in total precipitable water. The localized regions where ACAI increases IVT bias occur where the control IVT biases change sign and structure with increasing forecast lead time, such as the South Asian monsoon region. Substituting analyzed wind or moisture fields for the forecast fields when calculating the forecast IVT confirms that, on average, wind errors dominate the IVT error calculation in the tropics, although wind and moisture error contributions are comparable in the extratropics. The existence of regions where using either analyzed winds or analyzed moisture increases IVT bias or mean absolute error reveals areas with compensating errors.