arXiv Open Access 2026

Is the future of AI green? What can innovation diffusion models say about generative AI's environmental impact?

Robert Viseur Nicolas Jullien
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Abstrak

The rise of generative artificial intelligence (GAI) has led to alarming predictions about its environmental impact. However, these predictions often overlook the fact that the diffusion of innovation is accompanied by the evolution of products and the optimization of their performance, primarily for economic reasons. This can also reduce their environmental impact. By analyzing the GAI ecosystem using the classic A-U innovation diffusion model, we can forecast this industry's structure and how its environmental impact will evolve. While GAI will never be green, its impact may not be as problematic as is sometimes claimed. However, this depends on which business model becomes dominant.

Topik & Kata Kunci

Penulis (2)

R

Robert Viseur

N

Nicolas Jullien

Format Sitasi

Viseur, R., Jullien, N. (2026). Is the future of AI green? What can innovation diffusion models say about generative AI's environmental impact?. https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.21419

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Tahun Terbit
2026
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en
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arXiv
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Open Access ✓