arXiv Open Access 2026

Predicting Invoice Dilution in Supply Chain Finance with Leakage Free Two Stage XGBoost, KAN (Kolmogorov Arnold Networks), and Ensemble Models

Pavel Koptev Vishnu Kumar Konstantin Malkov George Shapiro Yury Vikhanov

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Abstrak

Invoice or payment dilution is the gap between the approved invoice amount and the actual collection is a significant source of non credit risk and margin loss in supply chain finance. Traditionally, this risk is managed through the buyer's irrevocable payment undertaking (IPU), which commits to full payment without deductions. However, IPUs can hinder supply chain finance adoption, particularly among sub-invested grade buyers. A newer, data-driven methods use real-time dynamic credit limits, projecting dilution for each buyer-supplier pair in real-time. This paper introduces an AI, machine learning framework and evaluates how that can supplement a deterministic algorithm to predict invoice dilution using extensive production dataset across nine key transaction fields.

Topik & Kata Kunci

cs.AI math.OC q-fin.MF

Penulis (5)

Pavel Koptev

Vishnu Kumar

Konstantin Malkov

George Shapiro

Yury Vikhanov

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Koptev, P., Kumar, V., Malkov, K., Shapiro, G., Vikhanov, Y. (2026). Predicting Invoice Dilution in Supply Chain Finance with Leakage Free Two Stage XGBoost, KAN (Kolmogorov Arnold Networks), and Ensemble Models. https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.15248

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Tahun Terbit: 2026
Bahasa: en
Sumber Database: arXiv
Akses: Open Access ✓