When and Why State-Dependent Local Projections Work
Abstrak
This paper studies state-dependent local projections (LPs). First, I establish a general characterization of their estimand: under minimal assumptions, state-dependent LPs recover weighted averages of causal effects. This holds for essentially all specifications used in practice. Second, I show that state-dependent LPs and VARs target different estimands and propose a simple VAR-based estimator whose probability limit equals the LP estimand. Third, in instrumental variable (LP-IV) settings, state-dependent weighting can generate nonzero interaction terms, even when the effects are not state-dependent. Overall, this paper shows how to correctly interpret state-dependent LPs, clarifying their connection to VARs and highlighting a key source of LP-IV misinterpretation.
Topik & Kata Kunci
Penulis (1)
Valentin Winkler
Akses Cepat
- Tahun Terbit
- 2026
- Bahasa
- en
- Sumber Database
- arXiv
- Akses
- Open Access ✓